# Expressing forecasts in words
#permanentnote
## Source
- [[book - Superforecasting - the art and science of prediction]]
## Keywords (topics and howto)
- [[topic - forecasting]]
- [[topic - finops]]
- [[how to be a better forecaster]]
- [[how to be a better communicator]]
## Relevant notes
## Notes
Instead of talking percentage, that are understood differently by each person, better use a word to probability mapping.
| Probability | Sentence |
| ----------- | ---------------------- |
| 100% | Certain |
| 93% ±6% | Almost certain |
| 75% ± 12% | Probable |
| 50% ± 10% | Chances are about even |
| 30%. ±10% | Probably not |
| 7% ± 5% | Almost certainly not |
| 0% | Impossible |
This was created by [[Sherman Kent]]