# Expressing forecasts in words #permanentnote ## Source - [[book - Superforecasting - the art and science of prediction]] ## Keywords (topics and howto) - [[topic - forecasting]] - [[topic - finops]] - [[how to be a better forecaster]] - [[how to be a better communicator]] ## Relevant notes ## Notes Instead of talking percentage, that are understood differently by each person, better use a word to probability mapping. | Probability | Sentence | | ----------- | ---------------------- | | 100% | Certain | | 93%  ±6% | Almost certain | | 75% ± 12% | Probable | | 50% ± 10% | Chances are about even | | 30%. ±10% | Probably not | | 7% ± 5% | Almost certainly not | | 0% | Impossible | This was created by [[Sherman Kent]]