# Avoiding common biases #permanentnote ## Source - [[my brain]] - [[book - World War Z]] ## Keywords (topics and howto) - [[topic - learning]] - [[topic - mental models]] - [[how to be a better self]] - [[topic - negotiation and sales]] - [[topic - mentoring, advising and coaching]] - [[how to be a better leader]] - [[how to be a better advisor]] - [[how to avoid common biases (brain shortcuts)]] ## Relevant notes - [[zt - we see based on our narrative]] is how biases enter into our brains. - [[zt - it is all invented]] - our narrative too - [[zt - never assume always test]] as a way to reduce any bias effect for quantitative things - [[zt - feedback is always welcome]] as a way to reduce any bias effect for qualitative things - [[zt - we live in a world of measurement]] and most measures are wrong or simply different per individual - [[zt - most people do not believe something can happen until it already has]] is a bias that deserves a dedicated note - [[zt - we react more to lose than win]] which is a natural feeling ## Notes ### problems - Our brain creates a narrative based on what we see more often; this is the *visibility bias*, and it makes us order the frequency of events incorrectly. For example, as a plane crash is more visible than car accidents, we tend to believe that planes are less secure than cars. - Another example is the reason for mortality. We tend to assign very rare events a bigger impact than reality and ignore what is happening the most but is less reported. - What I call the *community bias* is then our narratives are reinforced by being in closed communities and ignoring others. Political views, channels, friends and family. - Another bias related to project management is to believe that $Time = \frac{work}{people}$ is always true. - It is like believing that you can get a child in a month by having nine women being pregnant in parallel. It just doesn't work! - Corollary: do not believe the project management tools; not everything can be done faster with more people. - When all you know is the theory, reality seems like a problem to solve. - Avoid falling in love with your first answer - Find tools to fight myopia - question your judgment - the habit of making and recording - ask someone else to give you a new perspective - **Bystanded effect** - when a task is assigned to a group, everyone assumes it will be done by someone else; it is solved by assigning tasks to a single individual. - **Curse of Knowledge** when it is clear in your head but not in the recipient one - **Insider bias** expecting that others have the same knowledge as us on a specific topic. Here is an amazing graph of all the biases ![[Graph of all common biases.png]] *from [here](https://www.visualcapitalist.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/all-188-cognitive-biases.html)* ### solutions - A way to avoid biases is the method depicted in [[book - World War Z]] where out of 10, 9 agree on something; it is the duty of the 10th to disagree and prove it. - Do not fall in love with the first idea unless there is no time to do more