# About bad forecasts ## Source - [[book - Superforecasting - the art and science of prediction]] ## Keywords (topics and howto) - [[topic - forecasting]] - [[how to be a better forecaster]] ## Related notes - [[zt - what makes a good forecast]] ## Notes > Estimate is what you do when you do not know. - [[Sherman Kent]] > A declaration of high confidence mainly talls you that an individual has constructed a coherent story in their mind, not necessarily that the story is true. - [[Philip Tetlocks]] and [[Dan Gardner]]b in their [[book - Superforecasting - the art and science of prediction]] When the result of the forecast impacts our reputation, go into denial when wrong. The bigger the impact, the harder it is to avoid the denial.