##Thought Experiment #mentalmodel ## Source - [Thought Experiment](https://fs.blog/2017/06/thought-experiment/) ## Keywords (topics and howto) - [[topic - mental models]] - [[how to make better decisions]] - [[how to avoid common biases (brain shortcuts)]] ## Relevant notes ## Notes - a thought experiment is experimenting in our head. We do this when, for example, we rehearse a conversation before having it, figuring out every detail of a meal before cooking it - Most thought experiments are the start, not the end [[zt - never assume always test]]. - Some experiments are good on their own, like preparing for a speech, as the delivery will never be like the experiment, but the experiment will have prepared us; that is the goal. ### Types of thought experiments - **Prefactual** – Involving potential future outcomes. E.g. ‘What will X cause to happen?’ - **Counterfactual** – Contradicting known facts. E.g. ‘If Y happened instead of X, what would be the outcome?’ - **Semi-factual** – Contemplating how a different past could have led to the same present. E.g. ‘If Y had happened instead of X, would the outcome be the same?’ - **Prediction**– Theorising future outcomes based on existing data. Predictions may involve mental or computational models. E.g. ‘If X continues to happen, what will the result be in one year?’ - **Hindcasting**– Running a prediction in reverse to see if it forecasts an event which has already happened. E.g. ‘X happened; could Y have predicted it?’ - **Retrodiction**– Moving backwards from an event to discover the root cause. Retrodiction is often used for problem-solving and prevention purposes. E.g. ‘What caused X? How can we prevent it from happening again?’ - **Backcasting** – Considering a specific future outcome, then working forwards from the present to deduce its causes. E.g. ‘If X happens in one year, what would have caused it?’