# Second-Order Thinking #mentalmodel ## Source - [Second Order Thinking](https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/) ## Keywords (topics and howto) - [[topic - mental models]] - [[how to make better decisions]] - [[how to avoid common biases (brain shortcuts)]] ## Relevant notes ## Notes - When you have an idea, that is first-order thinking; when you take the time to think about the consequences, that is second-order thinking. It is possible to do third, fourth, … order thinking - Taking the time to think beyond the first order requires energy. Energy that most people do not want to use. ## How to use second-order thinking from: https://fs.blog/2016/04/second-order-thinking/ 1. Always ask yourself, “And then what?” 2. Think through time — What do the consequences look like in 10 minutes? Ten months? 10 Years? 1 3. Create templates like the second image above with 1st, 2nd, and 3rd order consequences. Identify your decision and think it through and write down the consequences. If you review these regularly, you’ll be able to help calibrate your thinking. 4. (Bonus) If you’re using this to think about business decisions, ask yourself how important parts of the ecosystem are likely to respond. How will employees deal with this? What will my competitors likely do? What about my suppliers? What about the regulators?  - The answer will often have little to no impact, but you want to understand the immediate and second-order consequences before making the decision. [[book - Wardley Maps]]